No More Curves, Only Waves: The New Reality of Bookings

The Shift in Guest Behavior and the New Reality of Revenue ManagementIntroduction: The Pickup Curve Is No Longer What It Used to Be – Are You Aware?For tourism professionals, the concept of the "pickup curve" has long been a cornerstone of revenue management. Especially in seasonal hotels, this curve—showing how bookings accumulate over time—was one of the key indicators guiding strategic decisions.

In the past, when looking at the room inventory’s fill-up process, one would see a gradual upward curve that gained momentum closer to the travel date. Today, that curve is often irregular, delayed, or altogether absent. Instead of the reassuring trendline they expect, many managers now face a flat line or chaotic waves in their pickup analysis.

This isn’t just a technical glitch—it's the result of a deeper structural transformation. So, why doesn't the pickup curve work anymore—and more importantly, what should we do about it?

1. Guests No Longer Plan Ahead—They Wait: Early Booking Behavior Has CollapsedLet’s begin with the primary shift. In the post-pandemic period, just as travel habits were starting to stabilize, new challenges like economic crises, currency volatility, geopolitical tensions, and climate emergencies began shaking consumers’ confidence in planning travel.

Specifically in Turkey:

• In the domestic market, “early booking discounts” are increasingly perceived as “early payment risks.”

• In international markets, despite the ongoing currency advantage, flight planning and visa processes are becoming more difficult.

Result: The booking window has shrunk dramatically. The accumulation of reservations that once formed the pickup curve is no longer occurring.

2. Price Flexibility Has Distorted Perception: The “Wait, It Might Drop” BehaviorDynamic pricing, a core strategy in revenue management, has created a sense of uncertainty in the minds of consumers. Observing constant price changes, guests are increasingly inclined to delay booking decisions.

"If a room is 2,500 TL in the morning and drops to 2,300 TL in the evening, it might go down to 2,100 TL tomorrow." This mindset pushes decision-making further back and fuels short-notice, last-minute bookings.

This behavioral change is one of the biggest reasons traditional pickup curves no longer form.

3. There’s Data—But It’s Inconsistent: New Challenges in Pickup AnalysisPMS data, OTA sales reports, website analytics, Google Ads performance, metasearch conversion rates… Revenue managers now have access to more data than ever. But that data is often:

• Not integrated

• Inconsistent

• Out of sync

• Open to interpretation

In this chaos, generating reliable predictions based on the pickup curve has become nearly impossible. Saying “We’re 10% behind last year” doesn’t mean much anymore, because the baseline year itself was unstable. Real insights now require segment-based, channel-specific, and behavioral data analysis.

4. Forecasting Models Are Outdated: Intuition Is BackPickup-based forecasting models were quite effective—until recently. Today:

• Bookings are volatile and mostly last-minute

• Cancellation rates have increased and become unpredictable

• Campaign impacts are difficult to forecast

• Demand is tied to real-time momentum, not seasonal norms

As a result, relying on historical data for forecasts has become increasingly risky. We now need not only data but also intuition, real-time market reading, and multi-dimensional scenario planning. A revenue manager must now be more than an analyst—also a demand intuitive.

5. Channel Dynamics Are Fragmented: Every Player Follows Their Own StrategyFor a pickup curve to form, distribution channels must work together in harmony. But today:

• Booking.com aggressively pushes dynamic pricing

• Expedia is quiet but active in niche segments

• Google Hotel Ads shortens the booking journey but has low conversion

• Direct booking channels often lack proper support

The result: Each channel creates its own pickup curve—but those curves conflict with each other. Since hoteliers can’t view all channels holistically, they’re unable to analyze actual pickup behavior.

6. Segmentation Has Deepened: Not All Guests Book at the Same TimeThe pickup curve cannot be understood by looking only at total bookings. Micro-segmentation is essential:

• Family travelers tend to book early, while young couples prefer last-minute

• Mobile users decide quickly, desktop users are more cautious

• The German market is stable, the UK market fluctuates

• Domestic travelers sensitive to installment payments book differently than international guests paying in foreign currencies

Ignore these differences, and the pickup curve becomes nothing more than an optical illusion. Real insight is only possible through segment-level analysis.

7. What to Do? Strategic Steps to Bring the Pickup Curve Into the Future

• Analyze pickup by segment and channel: Each one behaves differently.

• Rethink your forecasting models: Focus on market behavior, not just historical data.

• Make pricing more transparent: Manage dynamic pricing in a way that maintains guest trust.

• Use data to guide campaigns: Don’t rely solely on announcements—track their real pickup impact.

• Strengthen your direct channel strategy: Your website is the most controlled pickup environment.

Next-Gen Pickup Management with Optima: Merging Data with IntuitionIn today’s volatile market, success doesn’t come from just reading the past. It comes from interpreting data, uncovering its meaning, and taking action.

At Optima, we redesign pickup analysis for dozens of hotels in Turkey and the surrounding region—not with traditional methods, but with segment-focused, channel-aware, and behavior-driven insights. From revenue management to digital marketing strategies, channel analysis to website conversion optimization, we offer end-to-end support.

Your pickup curve may no longer bend as it used to. But with the right analysis, strategic intuition, and an integrated approach, your revenues can still rise.